T. Bayartugs, Ch. Battuvshin, R. Enkhbat Quadratic optimization over a polyhedral set International Mathematical Forum, Vol. 9, 2014, no. 13, 621-629 http://dx.doi.org/10.12988/imf.2014.4234
Evaluating the symptoms of Dutch disease in Mongolian economy
University of the Humanities
The main goal of this research work is to define whether the Dutch disease is apparent in Mongolia, based on the figures of macro economy and mining sectors.
According to the economic theories, there are a number of assumptions how mining resource affects the social-economic development. The most serious issue the countries which has natural resource faces is the profits from mining sector leads to currency appreciation, increase in export products, and falling-off of production and export.
There has been a boom in Mongolian mining sectors and putting the mining industries into usage shows a tendency tending to increase in the coming years. We assume that there is a possibility of the Dutch disease in Mongolia due to a huge specific weight of mining sector in total production and profit.
In the research part, we have studied how tugriks affect the rate, using the model of Balasssa Samuelson.
We have done research using OLS methods with the help of logarithm model, accumulating REER from 2006 to Sep 2012, production and export of mining sectors, FDI, foreign aids, government expenditure and rate data of main product of mining sector. To sum up the result, the following symptoms of the Dutch disease have appeared in the Mongolian economy.
 Corden Wax W. and Nyary Peter J., (1982) Booming sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy, The economic Journal, Vol.92, No 368, pp. 825-848.
 Mouhamadou Sy. Hamidreza Tabarraei., (2009) Capital inflows and exchange rate in LDCs: The Dutch disease problem revisited, Working paper N 2009-26 pp. 1-32.
Application of threshold autoregressive model to exchange rate of USD in Mongolia
University of the Humanities
Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models are popular among nonlinear time-series. TAR
models are proposed by Tong (1978) and discussed in detail in Tong and Lim (1980).
Hansen (1997) gives the analytic form of the asymptotic distribution for self-exciting TAR(2) models.
The main goal of my research is to deﬁne whether there is a nonlinearity behaviour in ex-change rate of USD to tugrug. I assume that there is a nonlinearity in rate of USD. Thus, to model nonlinear behaviour in exchange rate of USD, we used self-exciting TAR models with two regimes. The data is monthly average exchange rate of USD covering the period from January, 1993 to March 2013, (Figure 1)
Figure 1: source: The Central Bank of Mongolia
The results of my research is consistent with my hypothesis that the rate of USD is a non-linear process. In addition to the testing of nonlinearity of USD, the threshold variable of the model is deﬁned and values of the next 12 months is predicted according to the model. Matlab is used for the analysis of the research. The regime of the TAR model is built corresponding to economic contractions of exchange rate in Mongolia.
 Hansen, B.E., Inference in TAR Models, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econo-metrics, 2, 1-14, 1997.
 Hamilton, J.D., Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1994.